Wednesday, November 7, 2012

US Elections

Prediction: By the end of this week, people will be calling shenanigans in the polls.

They will use one of several (interesting) points, one of which is how each swing state voted.

State Obama          Romney         Difference        Percentage of Winning Candidate
Ohio: 2,672,302 2,571,539 100,757 3.77
Virginia: 1,852,123 1,745,397 107,726 5.82
New Hampshire:    335,004 300,241 34,763 10.37
Iowa: 816,174 727,545 88,629 10.86
Colorado: 1,204,230 1,102,623 101,607 8.44
Nevada: 528,801 462,422 66,379 12.55
Florida(pending): 4,129,502 4,083,441 46,061 1.12
Total 11,538,136 10,993,208 544,928 4.72
Average 1,648,305.1 1,570,458.3 77,846.8 4.72


At this time, Florida is also trending towards Obama (they have not yet finalized their count), although it appears that every county in Florida has finalized their votes. Florida is included in the following numbers.


President Obama got 50% of the votes (59,721,271) to Romney's 48% (57,095,396). The difference was 2% or 2,625,875 votes. That means that 20.75% of the difference between Romney's and President Obama's votes was in the swing states.

Notice anything?

All of them went to Obama, most of which with a relatively large relative difference. Now, if you had asked (most) people before the elections, most would have predicted that at least one swing state would give its electoral votes to Romney.

Also, why was 20.75% of the difference between Romney and Obama in those states? I would have expected them to be at most 5% of the nation wide difference. Those were, after all, "swing" states. States that were supposedly really close.


20.75% of 2% (or .415%) of the nation were what mattered in this election.


Mark my words, there will be calls of election shenanigans before the end of the week. In fact, they may have already started.

Sources:
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=elec_flippertkr